Investigating evacuation behaviour under an imminent threat of volcanic eruption using a logistic regression-based approach

Abstract

With natural hazard events increasing globally, it is important to establish an effective evacuation procedure to mitigate their impacts. This paper investigates factors contributing to individuals’ evacuation decision-making under an imminent threat of volcanic eruption based on the data collected from a stated preference survey conducted in Auckland, New Zealand. Several factors are analysed using a logistic regression approach, including socio-demographic factors and factors related to risk, awareness, preparedness, evacuation warning and order, evacuation route choice, evacuation mode choice and evacuation destination choice. The results revealed that some of these factors are influential for individuals’ evacuation decision-making, including ethnicity, choice of destination, mode of transport, length of residency, risk awareness, annual household income and household with children. These findings will be useful for planners and policymakers in managing risks and planning to improve the safety of the vulnerable community by identifying appropriate evacuation strategies and reducing risk-increasing evacuation behaviour.