Investigating environmental tectonics in Northern Alpine Foreland of Europe

Abstract

Until now, research on neotectonics and related seismicity has mostly focused on active plate boundaries characterized by a generally high level of earthquake activity. Current seismic hazard estimates for intraplate areas are commonly based on probabilistic analyses of historical and instrumental earthquake data. The accuracy of these hazard estimates is limited by the nature of the data (e.g., ambiguous historical sources), and by the restriction of available earthquake catalogues to time scales of only a few hundred years. Both of these are geologically insignificant and unsuitable for describing tectonic processes causing earthquakes. This is especially relevant to intraplate regions, where faults show low slip rates resulting in long average recurrence times for large earthquakes (103 to 106 yrs), such as the devastating Basel earthquake of 1356, with an estimated magnitude of 6.5.