Abstract
AbstractEstimating life‐history traits and understanding their variation underpins the management of long‐lived, migratory animals, while knowledge of recovery dynamics can inform the management of conservation‐dependent species. Using a combination of nest counts and individual‐based life‐history data collected since 1993, we explore the drivers underlying contrasting population recovery rates of sympatrically nesting loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles in North Cyprus. We found that nest counts of loggerhead and green turtles from 28 beaches across the island increased by 46% and 162%, respectively over the past 27 years. A Bayesian state‐space model revealed that, at our individual‐based monitoring site, nesting of green turtles increased annually at four times the rate of that of loggerhead turtles. Furthermore, we found that loggerhead turtles nesting at the individual‐based monitoring site had stable reproductive parameters and average adult survival for the species and are the smallest breeding adults globally. Based on results from multiple matrix model scenarios, we propose that higher mortality rates of individuals in all age classes (likely driven by differences in life history and interaction with fisheries), rather than low reproductive output, are impeding the recovery of this species. While the increase in green turtles is encouraging, the Mediterranean population is estimated to have around 3,400 adults and is restricted to the Eastern Basin. The recovery of loggerhead turtles is likely to be compromised until mortality rates in the region are adequately quantified and mitigated. As survival of immature individuals is a powerful driver for sea turtle population numbers, additional efforts should target management at pelagic and neritic foraging areas. Understanding threats faced by immature life stages is crucial to accurately parameterise population models and to target conservation actions for long‐lived marine vertebrates.
Highlights
Long-lived, migratory species may be at risk of extinction (Hutchings et al, 2012; Lewison et al, 2004) because they are likely to encounter diverse threats over a lifetime (Lascelles et al, 2014)
When applying the IUCN Marine Turtle Specialist Group (MTSG) Red List assessment method which compares change in nest counts between oldest and most recent 3- to 5-year averages (3 years being used here as equivalent to the median remigration interval for the two species at this site, Omeyer et al, 2019a), nest counts at these long-term beaches increased by 49% and 346% for loggerhead and green turtles, respectively (Table S2)
At the wider-island scale, when including a further 16 beaches for which we had 3 consecutive years of data between 1993 and 1997 and between 2017 and 2019, nest counts increased by 46% and 162% for loggerhead and green turtles, respectively (IUCN MTSG Red List assessment method, Table S2, Fig. 2)
Summary
Long-lived, migratory species may be at risk of extinction (Hutchings et al, 2012; Lewison et al, 2004) because they are likely to encounter diverse threats over a lifetime (Lascelles et al, 2014). Such species require longterm international conservation management, which is usually most successful when informed by an understanding of specific life-history traits and their variation (Dulvy et al, 2014; Ward-Paige et al, 2012).
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