Investigating consistent effects of the urban built environment and human mobility on COVID-19 outbreaks: A comprehensive meta-analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted strategies for mitigating its transmission across various disciplines and raised questions regarding the impact of urban density on spread. To build sustainable cities that protect against the pandemic, it is imperative to assess the impact of urban built environments and human mobility. However, current research on this topic presents mixed and conflicting results and has not confirmed consistent trends or quantified effect sizes. We conducted a meta-analysis of 50 studies to address this issue and determine a consistent trend in the effects of urban built environments on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that population density, road density, and human mobility significantly impact COVID-19 outbreaks, whereas other urban density metrics have minimal effects. The findings highlight the greater importance of human gatherings and active movement over static density, such as housing and building density or land use, in infectious disease transmission. These insights provide a comprehensive perspective on enhancing urban resilience to infectious diseases by rethinking urban density and implementing effective measures. Understanding the complex dynamics between urban built environment factors and disease transmission can inform policymakers and urban planners in creating healthier and more resilient cities.