Investigating city bike rental usage and wet-bulb globe temperature.

Abstract

Extreme heat exacerbates human illness and constrains the intensity and/or duration of outdoor activities. Temperature is an incomplete metric of outdoor heat exposures. By contrast, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a heat exposure metric that considers air temperature, moisture, solar radiation, and wind speed. In the USA, bicycle activity increased by 60% from 2000 to 2010. Several studies examined weather conditions and bicycling activities. However, few studies examined how the public should conduct their daily physical activities per weather conditions.This study investigated the relationship between WBGT and shared city bicycle activity in New York City(NYC) and San Francisco (SF), USA. Generalized Additive Models examined nonlinear relationships between WBGT and bicycle activity while controlling for rider demographics and temporal trends. Next, bootstrapping estimated the "peak point", when the relationship between the bike rentals and WBGT notably changed.The analysis also examined whether the heat warning messages affected cycling activities. We found that the number of rented bikes declined at different peak points in each city. The peak point was in NYC at 34.3°C (95% CI 33°C-35°C) and 10.8°C (95% CI 10-12°C) in SF. Somewhat paradoxically, bike rentals increased when heat warnings were issued in both cities.