Investigating a Water Resource Allocation Model by Using Interval Fuzzy Two-Stage Robust Planning for the Yinma River Basin, Jilin Province, China

Abstract

This study introduces a fuzzy method to construct the interval fuzzy two-stage robust (ITSFR) water resource optimal allocation model based on the interval two-stage robust (ITSR) water resource optimal allocation model. Optimal economic benefit was considered the objective function, and the number of available water resources, sewage treatment capacity, reuse water treatment capacity, and total pollutant control were considered as the constraints. Under three five-year planning periods (2015–2020, 2020–2025, and 2025–2030) and according to the allocation levels of dry, flat, and abundant water periods (low, medium, and high discharge), the pollution absorption, upgrading projects, and water resource allocation schemes of various water sectors (industry, municipal life, ecological environment, and agricultural sector) in the Yinma River Basin were optimized. Water consumption quota is an interval value; high and low water consumption lead to a waste of water resources in the water consumption sector and restrict the development of the water consumption sector, respectively, which indicates that the water consumption quota has the characteristics of fuzzy uncertainty. Therefore, the optimization model was set as a fuzzy parameter in the solution process. The simulation results indicated that water quota can directly influence the income of water resource use, and thus, indirectly influence the economic benefit of the Yinma River Basin during the planning period. In the planning period of the Yinma River Basin, the economic benefit interval of dry, flat, and abundant water periods was reduced by 57%, 55%, and 48%, respectively, which provides a robust method with the advantages of a balanced economy, a stable system, reduced decision-making space, and significantly improved decision-making efficiency. Moreover, the emission ranges of typical pollution indicators (chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen) in the eight counties and urban areas of the Yinma River Basin were significantly reduced during the three planning periods (Dehui area had the highest overall reduction of ammonia nitrogen in the industrial sector during the second five-year planning period, up to 65%), which indicated a significant improvement in the decision-making efficiency. In addition to the Changchun City planning areas dominated by the agriculture production water sector, water resource allocation accounts for >80% of the regional water resource allocation; using the fuzzy optimization method after the Yinma River Basin water resource allocation model, the overall water deficit was significantly reduced; moreover, it was almost the same as in the first five-year period of Changchun City industry water deficit, which declined by up to 33%. The problem of resource waste caused by excessive water limiting in the water sector could be avoided because of the fuzzy water limit. To solve the prominent problem of water deficit in large- and medium-sized cities in the basin, industrial and ecological water sectors can implement measures such as water resource reuse. The total amount of water reuse in a medium year increases by up to 46% compared with that in the ITSR optimization model, which can be attributed to the reduced water consumption limit range of water consumption sectors after the fuzzy water consumption limit. This shows that more water can be allocated to meet the requirements of the water sector during decision-making. In conclusion, this study offers an effective scheme for decision makers to plan water resource allocation in the Yinma River Basin.