Inverse modeling of Asian 222Rn flux using surface air 222Rn concentration

Abstract

When used with an atmospheric transport model, the 222Rn flux distribution estimated in our previous study using soil transport theory caused underestimation of atmospheric 222Rn concentrations as compared with measurements in East Asia. In this study, we applied a Bayesian synthesis inverse method to produce revised estimates of the annual 222Rn flux density in Asia by using atmospheric 222Rn concentrations measured at seven sites in East Asia. The Bayesian synthesis inverse method requires a prior estimate of the flux distribution and its uncertainties. The atmospheric transport model MM5/HIRAT and our previous estimate of the 222Rn flux distribution as the prior value were used to generate new flux estimates for the eastern half of the Eurasian continent dividing into 10 regions. The 222Rn flux densities estimated using the Bayesian inversion technique were generally higher than the prior flux densities. The area-weighted average 222Rn flux density for Asia was estimated to be 33.0 mBq m −2 s −1, which is substantially higher than the prior value (16.7 mBq m −2 s −1). The estimated 222Rn flux densities decrease with increasing latitude as follows: Southeast Asia (36.7 mBq m −2 s −1); East Asia (28.6 mBq m −2 s −1) including China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; and Siberia (14.1 mBq m −2 s −1). Increase of the newly estimated fluxes in Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia from the prior ones contributed most significantly to improved agreement of the model-calculated concentrations with the atmospheric measurements. The sensitivity analysis of prior flux errors and effects of locally exhaled 222Rn showed that the estimated fluxes in Northern and Central China, Korea, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia were robust, but that in Central Asia had a large uncertainty.