Inverse methods and kinetic models of hydrocarbon generation. IV. Sensitivity analysis, synthetic tests, and application of a residual kerogen analysis model to geological conditions

Abstract

An investigation is given of sensitivity analysis, synthetic tests, and application to geological conditions of an inverse kinetic model for residual kerogen analysis. Using kinetic parameters derived from different experimental data a sensitivity analysis study allows a discussion of the discrepancies in predictions of kerogen degradation rates and cumulative amounts of kerogen degraded with temperature, time, and depth of sediments. The synthetic tests and the application examine the applicability to different geological conditions and the uncertainty in predictions of hydrocarbon generation. The study shows that when average values of the kinetic parameters derived from different experimental conditions and samples are used under geological conditions, the modeled kerogen degradation rates and cumulative amount of kerogen degraded are uncertain by about 25°C in temperature, 12.5 My in time and 600 m in depth.