‘Inverse Crime’ and Model Integrity in Lightcurve Inversion applied to unresolved Space Object Identification

Abstract

This work presents a case wherein the selection of models when producing synthetic light curves affects the estimation of the size of unresolved space objects. Through this case, “inverse crime” (using the same model for the generation of synthetic data and data inversion), is illustrated. This is done by using two models to produce the synthetic light curve and later invert it. It is shown here that the choice of model indeed affects the estimation of the shape/size parameters. When a higher fidelity model (henceforth the one that results in the smallest error residuals after the crime is committed) is used to both create, and invert the light curve model the estimates of the shape/size parameters are significantly better than those obtained when a lower fidelity model (in comparison) is implemented for the estimation. It is therefore of utmost importance to consider the choice of models when producing synthetic data, which later will be inverted, as the results might be misleadingly optimistic.