Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

Kevin A Hughes,Tim Adriaens,Simon A Morley,Naomi Baxter,Wolfgang Rabitsch,Gillian Key,Wayne Dawson,Victoria Werenkraut,Danielle Frohlich,Elena Tricarico,Stephanie Martin,Niall Moore,Andrea Monaco,Denise Blake,Ian J Winfield,Pablo González‐Moreno,Peter Convey,Lauren M Gardiner,Angeliki F Martinou,Katharine Turvey,Mark Belchier,Dan Minchin,Elizabeth J Cottier‐Cook,Christopher Malumphy,David K A Barnes,Jodey Peyton,Jonathan Shanklin,Helen E Roy,David G Vaughan ,Ross D James ,Alexander G.c Vaux ,Karen Ross ,Oliver L Pescott

doi:10.1111/gcb.14938

Abstract

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non‐native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non‐native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non‐native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

Highlights

Few areas of the world are as remote and little impacted by humans as Antarctica, yet the biodiversity of the continent is under increasing threat from invasive non-native species (Frenot et al, 2005; Hughes & Convey, 2010; Tin, Liggett, Maher, & Lamers, 2014)
Some of the least impacted ecosystems globally are located within Antarctica, including those least invaded by non-native species (Hughes, Pertierra, et al, 2015); the Antarctic Peninsula region (APR) is under substantial and imminent risk of invasion (Chown et al, 2012)
13 nonnative species were identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR and adversely affecting biodiversity or ecosystems in the 10 years (Table 1)

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

Few areas of the world are as remote and little impacted by humans as Antarctica, yet the biodiversity of the continent is under increasing threat from invasive non-native species (Frenot et al, 2005; Hughes & Convey, 2010; Tin, Liggett, Maher, & Lamers, 2014). Governmental operators from 18 nations located in Europe, Asia and North and South America have established over 50 research stations and facilities in this region over the last 115 years, and more are planned, thereby increasing the probability of non-native species arriving from across the globe (Council of Manager of National Antarctic Programs [COMNAP], 2017). Despite a recent pause in the warming trend, global ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas emission scenarios suggest that the APR will again be subject to rapid warming by 2100 (Turner et al, 2016) This could lead to up to a threefold increase in the area of ice-free ground in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, resulting in greater connectivity of existing biological communities and potentially creating new habitat both for native biota and new arrivals (Duffy & Lee, 2019; Lee et al, 2017). Species allocated the highest score (A*B*C) are considered most likely to become invasive within the region

A Buttonweed Asterales

| METHODS

| DISCUSSION