Invasion potential of Agrilus planipennis and other Agrilus beetles in Europe: import pathways of deciduous wood chips and MaxEnt analyses of potential distribution areas

Abstract

Bark‐ and wood‐boring beetles in the genus Agrilus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) can survive wood‐chipping, and Agrilus planipennis has established in North America and European Russia with devastating impacts on forest ecosystems. The work presented in this paper combined import statistics of deciduous wood chips, Maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) of climatic similarities, and the distribution of potential tree hosts to predict the likelihood of four selected North American Agrilus species to become introduced and established in Europe. In agreement with the EU's energy‐policy target of increased use of wood chips, there was a linear or exponential increase in European imports of deciduous wood chips during the past 10 years from countries harbouring potentially harmful Agrilus species. MaxEnt showed high environmental suitability in Europe for the four selected Agrilus species, particularly in Eastern Europe and European Russia for A. anxius, A. bilineatus and A. planipennis and in southern Europe for A. politus. Documented susceptible host trees are widely distributed in the predicted areas of Agrilus distribution in Europe, and these areas receive large quantities of deciduous wood chips from countries where these and other Agrilus species are present. Thus, it was concluded that the fundamental conditions for introduction and establishment of Agrilus species in Europe are in place.