Invasion of the Land of Samurai: Potential Spread of Old-World Screwworm to Japan under Climate Change

Eslam M Hosni,Kholoud A Al-Shammery,Mohamed Nasser,Areej A Al-Khalaf,Sara Al-Ashaal,Doaa Soliman

doi:10.3390/d14020099

Eslam M Hosni, Kholoud A Al-Shammery + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020099

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Abstract

Temperatures have fluctuated dramatically throughout our planet’s long history, and in recent decades, global warming has become a more visible indicator of climate change. Climate change has several effects on different economic sectors, especially the livestock industry. The Old-world screwworm (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve, 1914), is one of the most destructive insect pests which is invading new regions as a result of climate change. The economic loss in livestock business due to invasion of OWS was previously assessed by FAO in Iraq to be USD 8,555,000. Other areas at risk of invasion with OWS in the future include Japan. Therefore, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was used to model predictive risk maps of OWS invasion to Japan based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070. The Area Under Curve (AUC) indicates high model performance, with a value equal to 0.89 (±0.001). In addition, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.7. The resulting models indicate the unsuitability of the northern territory of Japan for invasion by OWS. The main island’s southern costs show high and very high invasion suitability, respectively, and both Kyushu and Okinawa are at high risk of invasion with OWS. The predicted risk maps can be considered a warning sign for the Japanese quarantine authority to hasten a control program in order to protect the livestock industry from this devastating pest.

Highlights

The livestock industry forms one of the most effective economic sectors in both agricultural and non-agricultural countries [1,2,3]
A total of 104 localities with Oldworld screwworm (OWS) occurrence records were used to evaluate the potential invasion of such pests to Japan under changing climatic conditions
The Area Under Curve (AUC) value was generally higher in continuous species distribution modeling than in discontinuous modeling

Summary

Introduction

The livestock industry forms one of the most effective economic sectors in both agricultural and non-agricultural countries [1,2,3]. By 2050, global demand for animal products is predicted to quadruple, owing primarily to rising global living standards [7]. Several constraints facing such a rising economy include low genetic outcomes of native animals, water shortages, lack of marketing infrastructure, and global warming [8,9,10]. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are produced due to several industrial and anthropogenic activities, are the primary cause of global climate change [11]. Climate change and global warming have a severe negative effect on the livestock industry [12,13]

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