Invasion of pests resistant to Bt toxins can lead to inherent non-uniqueness in genetically modified Bt-plant dynamics: Mathematical modeling

Abstract

Genetically modified crops are effective pest management tools for worldwide growers. However, there is a concern that pests may develop resistance to Bt-toxins produced by genetically modified Bt-plants. We study the impact of the Bt-resistant pests on Bt-crops. Furthermore, the dynamics of the Bt-plant–Bt-susceptible insects–Bt-resistant insects system is analysed and it is shown that throughout the insect reproduction period the plant biomass dynamics resulting from invasion of Bt-resistant insects is non-unique. Namely, the chaotic attractor and the limit cycle, which are responsible for the plant and insect biomass dynamics, are shown to coexist. As a result, the Bt-plant–Bt-resistant insect system can manifest either chaotic or regular oscillations of plant and insect biomass depending on spatial patterns resulting from invasion of Bt resistant insects into the Bt plant–Bt susceptible insect system. We show that the non-uniqueness of the system dynamics under unfavorable environmental conditions, such as in the so-called zones of risky agriculture in many developing countries and industrialized countries, can lead to essential decrease in the plant biomass.