Invasion of Lantana camara L. and its response to climate change in the mountains of Eastern Ghats

Abstract

Biological invasion is one of the most sensitive modern–day research problems which has grabbed a lot of attention of several plant and animal scientists globally. Our study has addressed the current extent of habitat suitability of Lantana camara L. and its possible future expansion using MaxEnt model in three climatic years 2050, 2070 and 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Koraput district of Odisha. A total of seven environmental variables out of total of 23 including 19 bioclimatic, 03 topographic and 01 land cover change variable were taken as the predictors due to their lesser Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) scores to avoid multicollinearity. Slope and Minimum temperature of coldest month (MTCM) contributed the most towards the MaxEnt modelling process. The overall results predict drastic range expansion of Lantana camara L. with the trends 6902.28 km2 < 6996.90 km2 < 7020.97 km2 for RCP 4.5 and from 7001.88 km2 < 7247.56 km2 < 7304.00 km2 for RCP 8.5 between the intervals current–2050, current–2070 and current–2080 respectively. RCP 8.5 scenario showed more expansion compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. This study is first of its kind in Eastern Ghats of India and as Koraput forests are a part of community managed forests, the invasion of the species can be controlled by involving the local communities in the practices of canopy cover increase, regular uprooting of the weed, decreasing the practice of shifting cultivation and not leaving the croplands barren in the dry period of the year.