Intuitive symbolic magnitude judgments and decision making under risk in adults

Abstract

Performance on an intuitive symbolic number skills task—namely the number line estimation task—has previously been found to predict value function curvature in decision making under risk, using a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) model. However there has been no evidence of a similar relationship with the probability weighting function. This is surprising given that both number line estimation and probability weighting can be construed as involving proportion judgment, that is, involving estimating a number on a bounded scale based on its proportional relationship to the whole. In the present work, we re-evaluated the relationship between number line estimation and probability weighting through the lens of proportion judgment. Using a CPT model with a two-parameter probability weighting function, we found a double dissociation: number line estimation bias predicted probability weighting curvature while performance on a different number skills task, number comparison, predicted probability weighting elevation. Interestingly, while degree of bias was correlated across tasks, the direction of bias was not. The findings provide support for proportion judgment as a plausible account of the shape of the probability weighting function, and suggest directions for future work.