Introduction to the Special Section on Political Succession and Legitimation in Post-Soviet Eurasia

Abstract

This special section aims to examine the relationship between succession and legitimation in post-Soviet Eurasia. Presidential successions in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan offer valuable insights into the intricate nature of regime gaining and losing legitimacy in the aftermath of political succession. Since the early 2000s, the leaders of the four nations have advocated for constitutional amendments that have substantially enhanced presidential authority. In Kyiv, Minsk, Astana, and Baku, the established personal politics have favored the president, operating on principles of loyalty, cooptation, and clientelism, rather than relying solely on institutional regulations and electoral procedures. Elections in these states helped both to legitimize authoritarian rule and to spark violent uprisings against incumbent regimes. The coordinated succession in post-Soviet autocracies indicates that the reservoir of support to regime founders is robust, at least in the short term. The occurrence of post-electoral protests in Ukraine in 2004 and Belarus in 2020 and the Bloody January riots in Kazakhstan in 2022 serves as evidence of the erosion of personalistic rule. The lack of policy innovation or performative legitimation fosters a persistent desire for change, critical voices, and inter-elite rivalry. The incumbent regimes in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan used the guise of democratic legitimation to conceal their autocratic inclinations; Ukraine broke this cycle of personalistic tendencies and adhered to a democratic path. Autocratic stability aligns with the compulsion to reevaluate policy priorities and patronage networks during periods of succession.