Introduction to the inaugural general issue of environment systems and decisions.

Abstract

On behalf of the Editorial Board, we welcome readers to the inaugural issue of the Springer journal Environment Systems and Decisions. Updating the tradition of The Environmentalist (1981–2012), Environment Systems and Decisions will feature a revised scope focused on integrative decision making for environmental, social, technological, and economic systems. While many decision-oriented journals continue to focus on particular theories or methods, Environment Systems and Decisions will have an applied, systems-wide orientation. The topics will span a variety of industry, government, and military application domains with the utilization of decision analysis, systems analysis, risk assessment, risk management, risk communication, resilience analysis, policy analysis, environmental analysis, economic analysis, engineering, and the social sciences. The audience of Environment Systems and Decisions represent many application domains, as represented by the new name. For instance, Environment is intended to imply not only the natural environment, but also the environment in which a problem, decision, or innovation exists. By Systems we mean any type of systems, whether natural or manmade, technical or social, or concrete or abstract, or combinations thereof. Finally, Decisions emphasizes the behavioral and human elements of these subjects, and how the efforts featured in this journal can be leveraged to bring about significant positive changes to human welfare and the environment. Several upcoming special issues will explore themes relevant to our new scope. For instance, one upcoming issue will seek to capture the topic of sustainability from a quantitative, systems-based perspective. Another issue will investigate the topic of cyber security, which has traditionally focused on the development of technologies while largely ignoring the human aspects of the problem. Other topics to be explored in the future include multi-scale decision making and the value of information. This inaugural issue focuses on scenario analysis. Uncertainty is a universal theme or concept, cutting across disciplines and playing out at different scales of time and location. Questions regarding what the future might hold have fascinated scholars for centuries, yet scenario analysis as a formal discipline of investigating and addressing future scenarios is relatively new. Differing schools of thought exist in the field of scenario analysis, and there is no consensus on how and when to conduct a scenario analysis. How do we elicit, formulate, and identify scenarios? How do we account for stakeholder biases? How can we manage the uncertainty? What are the best ways to mitigate future risks and maximize future opportunities? We seek to address these questions through this special issue and provide insights on how to effectively utilize theories, methods, and applications of scenario analysis to better negotiate the risks and benefits associated with emergent and future conditions. The lineup of articles of this special issue is intentionally varied and crosscutting. We start with a comprehensive review of the scenario analysis literature from Tourki et al., who examine trends overtime in the nature of published articles. This serves as a jumping off point to explore the different methods and applications of the field. In an article from McCreight, practical methods and best practices of scenario development are outlined and applied I. Linkov (&) Z. A. Collier US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA, USA e-mail: Igor.Linkov@usace.army.mil