Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policy

Abstract

Climate models have been of substantial societal significance for several decades now, as they are a central tool relied upon in the study of global climate change. They have not, however, been the focus of much philosophy of science. This has begun to change in recent years, with an emerging literature on philosophical issues in climate modelling. The questions addressed in this literature are diverse, but in broad terms much of the work is concerned with the evidential roles of climate models, i.e., with what they can (and cannot) contribute when it comes to evaluating hypotheses about past, present and future climate change. In particular, philosophical attention has tended to focus on the assessment of climate models and their predictions, especially questions related to confirmation (e.g., Lloyd 2009, 2010; Parker 2009; Lenhard and Winsberg 2010; Steele and Werndl 2013; Katzav 2013, 2014) and to uncertainty (e.g., Petersen 2012; Parker 2010; Biddle and Winsberg 2010; Winsberg 2012; Katzav et al. 2012; Frigg et al. 2013). In October 2013, a workshop was held in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, entitled BThe Roles of Climate Models: Epistemic, Ethical and Socio-Political Perspectives.^ One core aim of the workshop was to advance understanding of the evidential roles of climate models, but another was to reflect on their many other roles: in framing policy discussions, in integrating knowledge across disciplines, in shaping the organization Euro Jnl Phil Sci (2015) 5:141–148 DOI 10.1007/s13194-015-0117-x