Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts

Abstract

This symposium presents seven presidential election forecasting models and their predictions of the popular two-party vote in the 2004 election. The modern age of election forecasting is now into its third decade. Models have been tested quite publicly in the heat of battle—with some doing well, others not quite so well, and still others making way for new models. In this introduction, I provide a brief overview of the models, a summary of this year's forecasts, and some thoughts about how the forecasts should be judged.