Introducing high-order response surface method for improving scour depth prediction downstream of weirs

Abstract

Scour depth downstream of weirs is considered one of the most important hydraulic problems, which greatly influences the stability of weirs. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) methods have become increasingly popular in modeling hydraulic variables, especially scour depth, because they can capture nonlinear relationships between input variables and their associated objectives. Despite their importance, these models have problems with hyperparameter tuning in scour depth modeling due to their structures, so algorithms must be used to tune the hyperparameters. Moreover, these algorithms are usually tuned by using the trial-and-error method to select the hyperparameters such as the number of hidden nodes, transfer function, and learning rate, and in this case, the main problem is overfitting during the training phase. To solve these problems, the high-order response surface method (HORSM), an improved version of the response surface method (RSM), is used as an alternative approach for the first time in this study to predict the scour depth. The HORSM model is based on high-order polynomial functions (from two to six) compared with the artificial neural network model (ANN). The findings indicate that the fifth order of the HORSM polynomial function yields the most precise predictions, with a higher coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.912 and Willmott Index (WI) of 0.972 compared to the values obtained using ANN (R2 = 0.886 and WI = 0.927). Moreover, the accuracy of the predictions is represented by a reduction of the mean square error by up to 44.17 and 29.01% compared to the classical RSM and ANN, respectively. The suggested model established an excellent correlation and accuracy with experimental values.