Introducing a partial bottom-up model for onshore wind turbine CAPEX estimation

Abstract

European wind turbine manufacturers are under significant cost pressure. To minimize risk in investment and development decisions, it is crucial to identify cost drivers, especially given the high volatility of resource prices. This study presents a cost model that breaks down the component costs of onshore horizontal axis gearbox or direct drive wind turbines. Individual sub-models are developed for each component, using existing models where available. Production costs of steel towers, rotor blades and gearboxes are modeled, following a bottom-up approach. The calculated main investment costs for a 4.4 MW onshore wind turbine in 2023 are 1311 €/kW. These results are approximately 15 % higher than those of a previous study conducted in Germany in 2022. The increase is attributed to price developments, high inflation, and the fact that manufacturers have been selling turbines at a loss, thus underestimating turbine costs in the recent past. The model is a valuable tool for researchers, OEMs, and policy makers to analyze manufacturing and material costs. It facilitates informed decision-making about future research needs in the face of economic challenges.