Intraseasonal precipitation variability on Kilimanjaro and the East African region and its relationship to the large-scale circulation

Abstract

Atmospheric circulation anomalies, related to snowfall events on the Tanzanian volcano Kilimanjaro, were analyzed based on hourly snowfall data from an automated weather station (AWS), global precipitation and reanalysis products. Analysis of 5 years of data (2000–2005) shows that snowfall on Kilimanjaro is linked to large-scale circulation anomalies, which can be identified in global reanalysis products. During the long rains season (March–May) snowfall on Kilimanjaro is associated with a west to east propagating wave of convective activity, which over East Africa merges with a precipitation-band maintained by steady easterly moisture influx due to cyclonic activity over northern Madagascar. Snowfall events tend to be associated with low wind speed, favorable for the development of surface radiative heating, thereby destabilizing the atmospheric column and initiating upward motion and deep convection. High near-surface specific humidity provides the necessary water vapor so that convection becomes moist. The short rains season (October–December) is dominated by east to west moisture transport. This easterly flow extends vertically through much of the troposphere and horizontally from the western Indian Ocean westward across the African continent. An active center of vertical motion and deep convection located over the western Indian Ocean near the East African coastline is responsible for easterly moisture transport and spill-over of precipitation into the East African domain. During positive phases of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) strong trade winds prevail across the Indian Ocean, which, in combination with enhanced westerlies over the continental interior, tend to enhance low-level wind and moisture convergence near Kilimanjaro. During the negative IOZM phase on the other hand, the trade winds across the Indian Ocean and the westerly flow from the Atlantic Ocean are weaker, moisture convergence is reduced and conditions to initiate deep convection over Kilimanjaro are generally less favorable.