Intraday futures patterns and volume–volatility relationships: the German evidence

Abstract

This paper examines the intraday behavior of 5-min DAX futures return volatility, volume and transactions, employing data from between January 1999 and September 2011, thus covering major market up and down trends. We focus on the interplay of the above variables finding a W-shape due to US macroeconomic news releases and the opening of US markets. By carefully modeling regular but infrequent events, we show that the last trading days of the FDAX and ODAX have significant impact on volatility and alter the intraday patterns. Additionally, we pay special attention to interactions between the futures and cash market caused by different trading hours at the Eurex. Thereby, we discover a uW-shape lending support for Daigler’s (J Futures Markets 17:45–74, 1997) extended market closure theory. Focusing on possible changes in the interplay of volume and volatility, we empirically analyze the implications of different volume–volatility theories. Finally, we model simultaneously the main volatility components—intraday calendar effects, macroeconomic announcement effects and interday volatility clustering—employing the framework of Andersen and Bollerslev (J Finance 53:219–265, 1998) to quantify and compare the impact of macroeconomic news announcements during contractions and expansions and focus on the economic impact of the crisis 2007/2008 on intraday volatility.