Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has provided an opportunity to rethink the development of a sustainable and resilient city. A framework for comprehensive intracity pandemic risk evaluation using mobile phone data is proposed in this study. Four steps were included in the framework: identification of high-risk groups, calculation of dynamic population flow and construction of a human mobility network, exposure and transmission risk assessment, and pandemic prevention guidelines. First, high-risk groups were extracted from mobile phone data based on multi-day activity chains. Second, daily human mobility networks were created by aggregating population and origin-destination (OD) flows. Third, clustering analysis, time series analysis, and network analysis were employed to evaluate pandemic risk. Finally, several solutions are proposed to control the pandemic. The outbreak period of COVID-19 in Shanghai was used to verify the proposed framework and methodology. The results show that the evaluation method is able to reflect the different spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic risk. The proposed framework and methodology may help prevent future public health emergencies and localized epidemics from evolving into global pandemics.
Highlights
Urban systems require synergistic actions to enhance their resilience and to respond effectively to different risks generated by anthropogenic factors [1] such as pandemics
The large-scale spread of COVID-19 and its long duration enabled the pandemic to evolve into a global public health threat
A more specific question that COVID-19 poses is how to establish a risk evaluation and prevention system that offers a quick response during the early stage of a pandemic
Summary
Urban systems require synergistic actions to enhance their resilience and to respond effectively to different risks generated by anthropogenic factors [1] such as pandemics. In 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly worldwide. The large-scale spread of COVID-19 and its long duration enabled the pandemic to evolve into a global public health threat. The COVID-19 pandemic has generated a number of issues and has caused significant disruption in society, the economy, and the environment [2]. This unprecedented public health emergency has attracted the attention of researchers in different fields. In the post-COVID-19 era, the global pandemic has reshaped our society and forced a deep rethink on how to strengthen urban resilience. Research has leveraged multisource data to explore the relevant factors that have driven the COVID-19 pandemic in order to improve the ability to manage it [13,14,15,16,17,18]
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