Intra-annual variation in the attribution of runoff evolution in the Yellow River source area

Abstract

Accurately understanding the intra-annual variation in runoff evolution attribution is essential for basin-scale water resources management. In this study, the runoff in the Yellow River source area was divided into two intra-annual time scales: flood season, non-flood season and spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the sensitivity and attribution differences of runoff changes in the Yellow River source area at different intra-annual time scales were quantitatively assessed based on the time-varying Budyko framework. Results show that the runoff in the Yellow River source area decreases during the flood season and spring, summer and autumn, and increases during the non-flood season and winter from 1960 to 2020, with an insignificant decreasing trend in annual runoff. Flood season and autumn runoff changes are the main reasons for the reduction in annual runoff. Runoff in the Yellow River source area is most sensitive to the underlying surface such as vegetation and soil freeze–thaw change, and in terms of climate change, non-flood season and autumn runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, while flood season and summer runoff is more sensitive to changes in potential evaporation. The underlying surface change is the dominant factor for annual runoff change. And for the intra-annual runoff change, the non-flood season, spring and winter runoff in the Yellow River source area is dominated by the underlying surface change, and flood season, summer and autumn runoff is dominated by the climate change. These findings can provide theoretical support for the scientific response to environmental change and the enhancement of water conservation capacity in the Yellow River source area.