Interventions to Address the Opioid Crisis—Modeling Predictions and Consequences of Inaction

Nora D Volkow,Carlos Blanco

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37385

Nora D Volkow, Carlos Blanco

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37385

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Abstract

Invited commentary: The scale of the opioid crisis in the United States highlights the need to identify and implement the most effective approaches to prevent overdose fatalities. Over the last 15 years, deaths due to opioid overdoses have exceeded 500 000,1 and declines in overall US life expectancy are partly explained by this increase in overdose mortality. The Healing Communities Study (HCS), part of the National Institutes of Health Healing Addiction Long-Term initiative to address the opioid crisis, is testing whether an integrated set of evidence-based prevention and treatment interventions can reduce overdose mortality by 40% over a 3-year period (the first year to select interventions and train personnel and 2 years of implementation).....

Highlights

Initiated in 2019, the Healing Communities Study (HCS) targets 67 urban and rural communities in 4 states with some of the highest rates of overdose fatalities in the country.[2]
In this decision analytical modeling study, Linas et al[3] used the Researching Effective Strategies to Prevent Opioid Death model, a dynamic population state-transition model of opioid use disorder (OUD) and OUD treatment, to simulate the population with OUD living in Massachusetts from 2015 to 2022, and forecast the potential impact of the evidence-based interventions proposed by HCS to prevent overdose over a 2 year period
The study simulated the effect of 3 interventions: initiating more people on medications for OUD (MOUD), improving retention with MOUD, and increasing naloxone distribution

Summary

Introduction

Initiated in 2019, the HCS targets 67 urban and rural communities in 4 states (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) with some of the highest rates of overdose fatalities in the country.[2]. In this decision analytical modeling study, Linas et al[3] used the Researching Effective Strategies to Prevent Opioid Death model, a dynamic population state-transition model of OUD and OUD treatment, to simulate the population with OUD living in Massachusetts from 2015 to 2022, and forecast the potential impact of the evidence-based interventions proposed by HCS to prevent overdose over a 2 year period.

Results

Conclusion