Abstract
This paper demonstrates the feasibility of computing interval estimates of structural reliability when distribution functions of basic random variables have uncertain parameters. The incomplete knowledge regarding the distribution parameters is modeled by interval variables. Reliability analysis needs to consider families of distributions whose parameters are within the intervals, leading to an interval estimate of the failure probability. To estimate the interval failure probability, an interval Monte Carlo method has been proposed which combines simulation process with the interval finite element analysis. The authors’ previously developed interval finite element method is utilized to model the ranges of structural responses. The developed method propagates the epistemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty separately through the reliability assessment. A planar steel frame example is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.
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