Intertemporal Relation Between The Expected Return And Risk: An Evaluation Of Emerging Market

Abstract

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; line-height: 11.5pt; layout-grid-mode: char; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; tab-stops: 266.7pt;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1;">This paper explores the intertemporal relationship between the expected return and risk in Chinese exchange market. We investigate the characterization of time-series variation in conditional variance and capture the cross-sectional correlation among equity portfolios by incorporating multivariate GARCH-M model with dynamic conditional covariance (DCC). Restricting the slope to be the same across risky assets, the risk-return coefficient is estimated to be positive and highly significant. In addition, the estimates of portfolio-specific slopes provide evidence to support the robustness across different portfolio formations. Our findings, in the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) framework, reveal that the risk premium induced by the conditional covariation of equity portfolio with the market portfolio remain positive after controlling for risk premia induced by conditional covariation with Fama French benchmark factors (HML and SMB). The SMB factor might provide a significant predictive power to hedge against market risk. However, four indices of alternative investments are not consistently priced in the ICAPM framework.</span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>