Intertemporal change in the effect of economic growth on carbon emission in China

Abstract

This research examines the factor of causality between the variables of economic growth and carbon emissions in China, by conducting full, and sub-sample Granger causality tests for the period of 1965 to 2019. The full-sample Granger causality test is not considered to be authentic, and is rather unstable, as indicated by the parameter stability tests. Therefore, we consider the time variation using a causality test, and the results indicate that the causality exists from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions. This development essentially suggests that economic growth is critical for China's environment. It also implies that carbon emissions are mainly determined by the increase in economic growth, at some specific period in time. Thus, in this regard, the use of renewable energy sources should be encouraged by policymakers, in order to deal with rise in the energy demand, and promote industrial upgrading, so as to slow down the rate degradation that the environment have been experiencing. However, our empirical results indicate that CO2 emissions are not the Granger reason to GDP. In this case, the government can formulate more conservative reduction policies that pertain to carbon emissions, and will therefore, not impede the economic growth.