Interstate hostility and maritime crime: Evidence from South East Asia

Abstract

Maritime Asia remains crucial to global economic growth and prosperity. Nearly 40% of the world's seaborne trade transits the South China Sea each year, and nine of the top ten busiest container ports in the world are located in the Indo-Pacific region. But uncertainties also pervade the region as governments struggle to combat numerous security challenges while violent non-state actors and trans-border criminal groups continue to exploit the environment. In this study, we examine the nexus between maritime crime and inter-state security, centering on the tactical decision-making of non-state criminal actors. To avoid capture, maritime criminals locate their illicit activities near sea-boundaries where rival states aim to avoid regime confrontations that could escalate to more costly disputes. Pirates, smugglers, and illegal fishers can use these contested border zones as sanctuaries similar to guerilla forces fleeing across land boundaries to avoid pitched battles with regime military units. Using an original geocoded dataset on maritime piracy (MPELD), we find significant support for our hypothesis that conflict among states substantively influences the location of maritime crime. Our study has important implications for global efforts to counter transnational criminal organizations and their illicit activities in maritime spaces defined by territorial quarrels.