Interstate Conflict and Ethnicity

Abstract

This study explores a new facet of how the ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect dyadic interstate conflict. Here, emphasis is placed on dyads containing ethnically diverse states with dominant ethnic groups. States with dominant ethnic groups but still significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to international ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. Variation in ethnic composition is captured by a new measure. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that dyads composed of ethnically diverse states with dominant ethnic groups are the most likely to engage in interstate ethnic conflict in which force has been used. Additionally, the power of a cross-border ethnic kin minority, as expressed in its share of the host state's population or its settlement patterns, also increases the likelihood of dyadic interstate ethnic conflict. Variables capturing ethnic dimensions have the strongest effect on interstate ethnic conflict compared to other traditional variables like regime similarity, capability and proximity.