Abstract
Climatic factors can affect the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBDs). Moreover, microbial network inference is useful for predicting the interrelationships between the incidence of FBDs and climatic factors. However, the interrelationships between FBD pathogens and most climatic factors are unknown. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial correlation coefficient matrices (PCCMs), we determined the intra-ecosystem interrelationship network of the multiple combined effects of 5 climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, insolation, and cloudiness) and the monthly incidences of 12 bacterial FBDs. Many FBD pathogens are interrelated with multiple combined factors. Salmonellosis has strong positive interrelationships with Vibrio parahaemolyticus and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and the interrelationships between Staphylococcus aureus/enteropathogenic E. coli/enterotoxigenic E. coli exhibits a typical triangular pattern with the combined effects of all 5 climatic factors. Meanwhile, campylobacteriosis and Clostridium perfringens infections are negatively interrelated with insolation and cloudiness. Enteroinvasive E. coli, Bacillus cereus, Listeria spp., and Yersinia enterocolitica are significantly interrelated with any climatic factor combination. The interrelationships or higher-order interrelationships among these climatic factors play an important role in the incidence of FBDs, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Our results will serve as a foundation for more sophisticated models of future FBD patterns with regard to climate change.
Highlights
Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, rainfall, and humidity can affect the incidence of several foodborne diseases (FBDs) [1,2]
The aim of this study is to predict the ecological interrelationships among FBD pathogens and climatic factors on the basis of the incidence of FBDs; we investigated intra-ecosystem interrelationships including the multiple combined effects of 5 climatic factors and the monthly incidence of 12 bacterial FBD pathogens in South Korea from 2011 to 2015 using principal component analysis (PCA)
This study could highlight the understanding of the interrelationship between climatic variables and FBD incidence by characterizing the association between multiple climate factors and the incidence of FBDs in South Korea
Summary
Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, rainfall, and humidity can affect the incidence of several foodborne diseases (FBDs) [1,2]. Most studies focused on specific climatic factors for specific bacterial FBD pathogens [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]. In nature, these bacterial FBD pathogens and climatic factors do not exist alone, but rather form complex ecological interrelationship webs. There may be many distinct ecological interrelationships among these FBD-causing microbial pathogens and related climatic factors [2]. Examining the associations between regional climate linked to FBDs will develop our understanding of climatic triggers for enteric infections as well as improve disease forecasts [12]
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