Abstract
Dengue cases in Malaysia are on the rise and have worsened since last decade, and this has generally been attributed to human actions. However, the effects of climate in this situation have been under-mentioned. We argue that climate also plays a role in spreading dengue transmission and multiple studies have shown that climate and transmission of infectious diseases are closely interconnected. Our evaluation examines how local climate influences dengue transmission by studying two parameters, specifically local average surface temperature and average precipitation, and we assume that a changing climate will influence the number of reported dengue cases and mortality rates. We also study the potential impact of climate change on the transmission of dengue and its distribution over a large geographical region, and have found that dengue and infectious diseases in general tend to be widespread in regions with higher or increasing surface temperature.
Highlights
Global Climate ObservationCurrent climate models predict that global surface temperatures may experience increases of up to 8 ̊C and an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration up to 1000 ppmv by 2100 [1] [2]
Future cases of dengue transmission are difficult to predict, it is important to note that there are mathematical models that can be used to study the global transmission of infectious diseases
The utilization of these models will help Malaysia to restrict the prevalence of dengue, but they can help local hospitals and clinics prepare for the outburst of a dengue endemic during certain times in the year
Summary
Current climate models predict that global surface temperatures may experience increases of up to 8 ̊C and an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration up to 1000 ppmv by 2100 [1] [2]. This increase will influence the future climate, and other environmental systems which we depend on. L. Tham changes can alter the behavior of infectious diseases and pose global health concerns [3]. The World Health Organization (WHO) noted that if the earth experiences a fast pace of climate change, the transmission of infectious diseases will follow a rapid trend, which in time could eventually become the sole cause of disease transmission [4]
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