Interregional forecast of student enrollment ? A simulation approach

Abstract

It is essential for any planning of educational activities to have some estimate of future student numbers. Therefore, the interest in forecasting studies of student enrollments is widespread and the number of them is legion. However, a survey of the available literature gives the impression that most of the researchers spend a large amount of the time fighting the inadequate data base and do not indulge themselves in highly sophisticated techniques. The reason given is that complex forecasting models cannot be justified by the weal; data base; which is an error since neither very simple nor highly sophisticated procedures can alter data limitations. However, the latter type of methods offers the possibility to work out alternatives to project enrollment figures based on different assumptions, to exhibit missing data and to serve as a framework for further research. After giving a brief introduction into the literature on forecasting of educational enrollment, a model will be presented which is based on the flows of students between regions and institutions, together with some examples of usage of the basic flow matrix. There are two types of projection studies. The first group, basically trend extrapolations of historical data, will be called "demographic forecast" for simplicity, whereas the second group, here called "educational models, " includes socio-economic variables and usually uses complex mathematical models (Peucker, T. K. 1968).