Interprovincial agricultural water footprint in China: Spatial pattern, driving forces and implications for water resource management

Abstract

The increasing domestic grain trade is prompting the regional transmission of agricultural virtual water in China. Understanding the factors driving this flow is important for mitigating the agricultural water footprint (AWF). Nevertheless, comprehending the water flow within China's agricultural industry and spatial relationship between driving factors and the flow has been lacking. This study employs the multiregional input-output (MRIO) method and geographical detector to examine China's interprovincial AWF and the influencing factors in 2012, 2015 and 2017. The results indicate a decrease in China's AWF from 390.27 billion m3 in 2012 to 376.62 billion m3 in 2017, with an increasing proportion involved in provincial transfer. The spatial pattern of AWF is generally high in the north of China, with Xinjiang and Heilongjiang as the largest AWF provinces over the three years. The average intensity of AWF (AWFI) decreased from 107.44 m3/thousand yuan in 2012 to and 81.25 m3/thousand yuan in 2017, which indicating an improve of agricultural efficiency in terms of water use per agricultural output. Over 42 % of China's AWF is transferred between regions, highlighting the significance of remote interactions in terms of agricultural virtual water. However, the agricultural water flow pattern lacks rationality, primarily moving from water-deficient areas to water-rich areas. Factors representing regional agricultural development determine the distribution of AWF and the outflow, while the social and economic factors significantly influence AWFI and the virtual water inflow. Based on the results, suggestions for reducing AWF and optimizing water flow were proposed from both producers' and consumers' perspectives. Producers are advised to decreased chemical fertilizers usage, promote efficient irrigation technologies, and optimize planting structures, while consumers should adjust dietary patterns to reduce water-intensive consumption, raise awareness about the water-saving consumption, and establish ecological compensation standards based on AWF.