Interpreting US-China Trade War Background, Negotiations and Consequences

Abstract

Since March 2018, the US–China trade conflict has escalated from a tariff war to a technology war and the strategic competition between the two giants, and the direction of the trade war and China–US relations will reshape the world order of the future. The questions the paper attempts to explore include what major goals does the US have in the trade war against China? How should one evaluate the influence of the domestic structural changes of the two countries upon the trade conflict? Will a possible deal stop the spiraling of the strategic competition between the two major powers? By answering these questions, the paper gives analysis of the political and economic driving forces behind the US–China trade war and the factors affecting the consequences of the negotiations. The major arguments include that the trade frictions have deep roots in the restructuring of domestic politics taking place in the two countries; while extreme thoughts define the US–China relationship from the perspectives of ideology and strategic rivalry, economic interdependence and shared stakes set the ground for negotiation and possible compromise between the two countries; and rebuilding political trust will be the key to dealing with strategic rivalry and avoiding the new cold war between China and the US.