Interpreting the Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Florida through Pressure Change

Abstract

Precipitation is one of the many important natural factors impacting agriculture and natural resource management. Although statistics have been applied to investigate the non-stationary trend and the unpredictable variances of precipitation under climate change, existing methods usually lack a sound physical basis that can be generally applied in any location and at any time for future extrapolation, especially in tropical areas. Physically, the formation of precipitation is a result of ascending air which reduces air pressure and condenses moisture into drops, either by irregular terrain or atmospheric phenomena (e.g., via frontal lifting). Thus, in this paper, pressure change events (PCEs) will be used as a physical indicator of the stability of atmospheric systems to reveal the impact of temperature on precipitation in the tropical areas of Florida. By using data from both national and regional weather observation networks, this study segments the continuous observation series into PCE sequences for further analysis divided by dry and wet seasons. The results reveal that the frequency and intensity of PCE are highly associated with the occurrences of weather events. Decreasing pressure favors precipitation, and may turn extreme when the temperature and air moisture are sufficient to fuel the process. With similar intensity, decreasing pressure change events (DePCEs) generally bear a higher probability of precipitation (POP) and precipitation depth (PD) than increasing pressure change events (InPCEs). The frequency of alternating between InPCEs and DePCEs is subject to the temperature of the season and climate. Due to the seasonal fluctuations of weather characteristics, such as temperature and relative humidity, the dependence of extreme precipitation on these characteristics can be interpreted via PCE. A 7% increase rate of precipitation vs. temperature rise, determined by the Clausius—Clapeyron (C—C) relationship, can be observed from extreme precipitation with variances in the season and PCE types. Although indicated by other research, active vertical movement of air caused by a phase change in water at the frozen point is not pronounced in Florida. The response patterns of humidity to precipitation also vary by season and PCE types in extreme conditions. In summary, PCEs demonstrate reliable physical evidence of precipitation formation and can better associate the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather with other characteristics. In turn, such associations embody the underlying physical concepts present at any location in the world.