Interpreting magnitude of change in strength and conditioning: Effect size selection, threshold values and Bayesian updating

Abstract

ABSTRACT The magnitude of change following strength and conditioning (S&C) training can be evaluated comparing effect sizes to thresholds. This study conducted a series of meta-analyses and compiled results to identify thresholds specific to S&C, and create prior distributions for Bayesian updating. Pre- and post-training data from S&C interventions were translated into standardised mean difference (SMDpre) and percentage improvement (%Improve) effect sizes. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis models were conducted to compare effect sizes, develop prior distributions, and estimate 0.25-, 0.5-, and 0.75-quantiles to determine small, medium, and large thresholds, respectively. Data from 643 studies comprising 6574 effect sizes were included in the analyses. Large differences in distributions for both SMDpre and %Improve were identified across outcome domains (strength, power, jump and sprint performance), with analyses of the tails of the distributions indicating potential large overestimations of SMDpre values. Future evaluations of S&C training will be improved using Bayesian approaches featuring the information and priors developed in this study. To facilitate an uptake of Bayesian methods within S&C, an easily accessible tool employing intuitive Bayesian updating was created. It is recommended that the tool and specific thresholds be used instead of isolated effect size calculations and Cohen’s generic values when evaluating S&C training.