Interpreting error in the estimation of skeletal growth profiles from past populations: An example demonstrating skeletal growth in historic African American communities.

Abstract

The study of growth in the past is a critical component of bioarcheological analyses. However, our understanding of growth in the past is subject to a number of methodological challenges. This study aims to model the skeletal growth of past populations by considering the challenges associated with the data collection process and the challenges associated with the age estimation procedures. We use skeletal remains from two historic African American cemeteries in the American South to model femoral diaphyseal length-for-age. We estimate the age of each individual using dental development techniques and present growth curves as both a product of the maximum likelihood (MLE) age estimate and the estimated posterior age distribution. Growth was compared against a reference sample from the University of Colorado Child Research Council Study. The results of our analyses showed that femoral diaphyseal length in two historic African American communities is small-for-estimated age as compared to a modern reference sample. However, the magnitude and characterization of this difference is variable when taking into account the broader posterior age distribution. Both samples may be small-for-age due to physiological stress associated with racism, inequality, and the compounding effects of early urbanization. However, the interpretation of growth in the past is muddled when considering the relationship between the study sample and the reference sample, when accounting for uncertainty in the age estimation procedure, and the error-inducing steps taken during the data collection process. Future interpretation of skeletal growth in the past must include a full account of the possible sources of error in order to present an accurate representation of growth.