Interpretation of the coupling mechanism of ecological security and urbanization based on a Computation-Verification-Coupling framework: Quantitative analysis of sustainable development

Abstract

In recent decades, China's rapid urbanization has produced numerous economic benefits while simultaneously creating substantial risks to ecological security. China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have recently explicitly called for the coordinated development of ecological security and urbanization. Given this context, it is important to explore the mechanism by which ecological security and urbanization are coupled and coordinated to promote sustainable development. In this study, an index of the relationship between ecological security and urbanization was established via high-resolution data, and a "Computation-Verification-Coupling" (CVC) framework was constructed. The accuracy of the ecological security index was verified using a linear regression model, and the coordination level between ecological security and urbanization was analyzed via a coupled coordination model (CCM). The results revealed a steady increase in the ecological security index from 2010 to 2020; the proportion of the area above the medium level increased from 63.1 % to 74.1 %. The urbanization index in core counties exhibited rapid growth, with level V urbanized areas expanding from 5.5 % to 9.9 %. The ecological security verification model produced a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.75685, indicating a satisfactory degree of predictive capability. From 2010–2020, the coupled coordination improved, with the high coordination area accounting for 48.8 % and the extreme discoordination area decreasing from 1.8 % to 1.0 %. Coordinated development exhibited a stable progression, characterized by a cyclical evolution from initial coupling to antagonistic coupling and finally to coordinated development. This framework can be used not only to investigate the relationship between ecological security and urbanization but also to provide a quantifiable measure of progress toward achieving the SDGs.