Interpretable survival network for progression risk analysis of multimodality imaging biomarkers in poor-prognosis head and neck cancers

Abstract

This study explores the predictive utility of multi-time point, multi-modality quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) and clinical factors in patients with poor-prognosis head and neck cancers (HNCs) using interpretable machine learning. We examined 93 patients with p16 + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma or locally advanced p16- HNCs enrolled in a phase II adaptive radiation dose escalation trial. FDG-PET and multiparametric MRI scans were conducted before radiation therapy and at the 10th fraction (2 weeks). A survival network analyzed MRI and PET-derived biomarkers such as gross tumor volume (GTV), blood volume (BV), and metabolic tumor volume (MTV50), along with clinical factors to predict local (LF) and distant failures (DF). Feature attributions and interactions were assessed using Expected Gradients (EG) and Expected Hessian (EH). Through rigorous cross-validation, the model for predicting LF, incorporating biomarkers like p16 status and radiation boost, achieved a c-index of 0.758. Similarly, the DF prediction model showed a c-index of 0.695. The analysis of feature attributions and interactions enhanced understanding of important features and complex factor interplays, potentially guiding more personalized and intensified treatment approaches for HNC patients.