Interpretable prediction model for assessing diabetes complication risks in Chinese sufferers

Abstract

AimsWith growing concerns over complications in diabetes sufferers, this study sought to develop an interpretable machine learning model to offer enhanced diagnostic and treatment recommendations. MethodsWe assessed coronary heart disease, diabetic nephropathy, diabetic retinopathy, and fatty liver disease using logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and CatBoost algorithms. The SHAP algorithm was employed to elucidate the model's predictions, offering a more in-depth understanding of influential features. ResultsThe CatBoost model notably outperformed other algorithms in AUC, achieving an average AUC of 90.47 % for the four complications. Through SHAP analysis and visualization, we provided clear and actionable insights into risk factors, enabling better complication risk assessment. ConclusionsWe introduced an innovative, interpretable complication risk model for people with diabetes. This not only offers a potent tool for healthcare professionals but also empowers sufferers with clearer self-assessment capabilities, encouraging earlier preventive actions. Further studies will underscore the model's clinical applicability.