Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Philipp Dönges,Viola Priesemann,Mirjam Kretzschmar,Jonas Dehning,Michael Mäs,Kai Nagel,Emil N Iftekhar,Sebastian B Mohr,Simon Bauer,Sebastian Contreras,André Calero Valdez,Joel Wagner

doi:10.3389/fphy.2022.842180

Abstract

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.

Highlights

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus has played a central role in people’s day-to-day conversations and the information they search for and consume [1]
2.1 Data-Derived Behavioral Feedback Loops. Throughout this manuscript, we investigate how the interplay between information about the COVID-19 pandemic and its spreading dynamics is mediated by the perception of risk
We tailor our approach to the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, i.e., to a disease having the following characteristics: 1) high transmissibility, 2) relatively low infection fatality rate, 3) widespread vaccine hesitancy, 4) waning immunity, and 5) public attention and coverage

Summary

Introduction

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus has played a central role in people’s day-to-day conversations and the information they search for and consume [1]. People decide multiple times every day how closely they follow mask-wearing regulations or meeting restrictions If hesitant, they might take weeks or months to decide whether to accept a vaccine. While typical models of disease spread consider that individual behavior affects the spreading dynamics of an infectious disease, they often neglect that there is a relation in the opposite causal direction This feedback loop comprises that, e.g., mass media regularly updates individuals on the latest local developments of the pandemic, such as the current occupancy of intensive care units (ICUs). This information affects individuals’ opinions and risk perceptions and, their actions [3]. Given high perceived risk, individuals reduce their non-essential contacts

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