Interplate Coupling Distribution Along the Nankai Trough in Southwest Japan Estimated From the Block Motion Model Based on Onshore GNSS and Seafloor GNSS/A Observations

Abstract

AbstractAlong the Nankai Trough of southwest Japan, large‐magnitude interplate earthquakes (M > 8) have occurred repeatedly, with recurrence intervals of approximately 100 years. It is essential to estimate more precisely the spatial distribution of interplate coupling; that is, along‐strike and along‐dip heterogeneity of the coupling ratio defined as the slip deficit rate divided by the plate convergence rate, for understanding the mechanisms and/or assessing the potential of future mega interplate earthquakes in this region. Recently, the seafloor Global Navigation Satellite System‐Acoustic (GNSS/A) combination technique observation network has been extended, and we can now obtain crustal displacement fields for both onshore and offshore regions. In this study, we estimate interplate coupling distribution along the Nankai Trough using both seafloor GNSS/A and onshore GNSS data with the block motion model, minimizing the spatial variations of modeling uncertainties of coupling estimates. Seafloor GNSS/A data depict very strong coupling near the trough axis off of Tokai, as well as trough‐parallel heterogeneity in interplate coupling at the shallow plate interface. Using the block motion model confirmed that observed crustal deformation above the deep plate interface in SW Japan is dominated by rigid block motion rather than elastic response to slip deficit on the deep plate interface of the subducting Philippine Sea plate. The minimization of spatial variations for the modeling uncertainties of coupling estimates helps us to estimate the coupling distribution with nearly homogeneous uncertainties between offshore and onshore regions, which is useful for evaluation of interplate earthquakes and/or tsunamis hazards.