Interpersonal communication, voting behavior and influence in election campaigns: a directional approach

Abstract

Interpersonal influence-the process by which people change their idea according to the ideas of others-is a crucial mechanism that forges political agreement among citizens. Previous research, however, focused on non-directional aspects of influence-namely, by testing whether disagreement with political discussants affects volatility in vote intentions. Volatility, however, might be also the result of polarization processes. By using data from the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study short-term campaign panel, this paper tests influence in a directional fashion, by assessing whether respondents facing disagreement are more likely to switch toward the party that the discussant supports. In order to account for choices’ variations over time, a generalized version of regression models based on a “stacked” data matrix is employed. Consistent with influence expectations, results show that people facing disagreement tend to change their vote intention in order to avoid disagreement with their discussants. This process is more likely when disagreement is lenient (namely, when respondent and discussants vote for different parties that lay on the same side of the political spectrum) and when the discussant is perceived as more knowledgeable.