Abstract
This article discusses the prospects of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) to expand its sphere of influence and become a full-scale reserve world currency. The methods used in the article are retrospective analysis and graphic analysis. The work is divided into three sections. The first section provides a broad overview of modern reserve currencies. The second part characterizes RMBs shaping as a reserve currency, as well as inner and outer factors that influence its status. The third section includes information about RMBs current status and its perspectives for being a reserve currency in the future. The article argues that currently RMB has already become a regional reserve currency in Asia-Pacific. Chinese government continues to make steps towards international expansion of RMB, yet these steps cannot make RMB one of the leading world currencies together with USD and EUR in the nearest decade.
Highlights
In the late 2010s, the Renminbi (RMB) became the third largest currency in the Special Drawing Right (SDR) valuation basket (10,92%) after the euro (EUR) (30,93%) and the United States dollars (USD) (41,73%
The gains for different countries anticipated from using RMB as a reserve currency include lower transactional costs, because no secondary currency conversion will be needed once RMB becomes free convertible, international seigniorage, wider space for fiscal and monetary policies, the transfer of exchange risk from the domestic firms to their foreign counterparts, the growth of domestic consumer’s purchasing power owing to renminbi broader acceptability and the general expansion of Chinese economic and political influence
It started by including RMB to SDR and definitely aims at total “de-dollarization” of the Asia-Pacific region, which is quite a logical and natural move for such an economically ambitious power
Summary
Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», Москва, Российская Федерация. Рассматриваются перспективы китайского юаня в части расширения его влияния и становления в качестве мировой резервной валюты. С. 233–242 статье, – ретроспективный анализ и графический анализ. Далее описывается увеличение доли юаня в корзине специальных прав заимствования (СДР), а также внутренние и внешние факторы, влияющие на его статус. Представлена информация о текущем состоянии юаня и его перспективах стать мировой резервной валютой в будущем. Что в настоящее время юань можно назвать региональной резервной валютой в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Китайские власти продолжают делать шаги в направлении международной экспансии, однако этот факт не сделает юань конкурентоспособным по сравнению с долларом США и евро в ближайшее десятилетие. Ключевые слова: резервные валюты, китайский юань, юань, корзина СДР, статус юаня.
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