International Turbulence and Russia.

Abstract

Using a multidisciplinary approach, this report analyzes the current transformation of the world-order architecture. It is noted that the speed and depth of this transformation is unprecedented for peacetime over the past 200 years. One of the most important indicators of turbulence is a certain deglobalization of the world economy. A study of the technological, social, economic, and political variables of social change has revealed that the traditional (for developed countries) social contract between government, business, and civil society has come to a crisis. This social contract has been in effect for more than half a century, since the times before globalization, the times of an industrial and bipolar world. Its inconsistency with modern realities, coupled with the inability of the old political center to offer convincing approaches to its modernization, has polarized societies and weakened social cohesion in the developed part of the world. As a result, populist and isolationist political forces have come to power. It is these forces that have started the dismantling of the existing system of global governance and its norms and institutions. The main contradiction of the current transformation in the world order is an attempt to bring back the polycentric world to a unipolar architecture with the dominance of the United States. The most likely scenario for resolving this contradiction is to create a new bipolarity. The author of the report expresses his views on the possible outlines of Russia’s foreign policy, which would enable the country to adapt to the bipolarity of the 21st century and to a new role as a balance-keeper. A new design of global architecture is proposed, which is based on multilateral responsible leadership.