Abstract
Animal disease events can lead to international trade restrictions which can vary in duration, products included, and geographical extent. Accounting for multilateral resistance between trading partners, a general gravity model of trade is estimated with a Hausman-Taylor and a Hausman-Taylor seemingly unrelated estimator to evaluate the trade quantity impact by commodity resulting from highly pathogenic poultry disease events in 24 exporting markets. Commodity specific results show that quantity traded and products demanded during a disease event differ by commodities. Understanding these impacts can better prepare exporters for potential changes in trade quantity given a disease event.
Highlights
Global consumer demand for meat has steadily increased over the last half century and is projected to continue to increase
Pathogenic poultry disease events can cause disruptions in trade flows through changes in supplies and through importer trade restrictions leading to changes in quantity traded, composition of products traded, and sources of imports
This study estimates the impacts Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and Newcastle disease virus (NDV) events have on quantity traded by comparing a series of estimators
Summary
Global consumer demand for meat has steadily increased over the last half century and is projected to continue to increase. The scope of the limitations can be measured in terms of the relative risk posed by various product categories, the geographic extent of the event, and/or the duration of limitations Importer responses to animal health events can vary by species (e.g., chicken or turkey), cut (e.g., whole or parts), and/or degree of processing (e.g., fresh or frozen) for meat and egg products based on trade policies and consumer demand impacts (Mu et al 2015; Hasiner and Yu 2018). The categories of products being exported and the nature of a disease event, such as whether the disease is limited to wild birds or a strain that is potentially zoonotic, are important influencing factors of trade. Future research could expand this analysis to the dynamic implications of trade restrictions due to a disease event
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