International stock return predictability: on the role of the United States in bad and good times

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this article, we document the asymmetric role that the US stock market plays in the international predictability of excess stock returns during recession and expansion periods. Most of the positive evidence accrues during the periods of recessions in the United States. During the expansions, there is only a limited evidence supporting the importance of lagged US returns in predictability of stock returns in 10 industrialized countries.