International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period

Abstract

This paper uses recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing the linkage and dynamic interactions among stock market movements. Our findings are in sharp contrast with previous research which discovered strong interdependence among national stock markets prior to October 1987. For the post-October 1987 period, however, our results show that the degree of international co-movements among stock price indices has increased substantially, with the Nikkei index the only exception. Furthermore, the US stock market is found to have a considerable impact on the French, German and UK markets in the post-crash period. We also find the response of the French, German and UK markets to US stock market innovations to be consistent with the view of cross-border informationally efficient stock markets. Finally, we find the Japanese equity market performance to have no links with both the US stock market and the stock markets in France, Germany and UK during the pre-and post-October crash period.